It was wet. Very wet.
Now, I could pretend to say that I can do some curve fitting on the laps run to be able to say something about the relative pace of the cars in the wet. But if I did, I’d be lying. Quite simply, no-one ran enough laps, the conditions were far from constant, and there were no comparative runs. If there is nothing to anchor the data, then it’s just guessing. And you don’t need to do any work to guess. I’ll leave that to others.
I’ve done my homework on last year’s race, and the fuel effect is quite big (as Suzuka/Barcelona), and the time loss for a pitstop is very short. This means that (in a dry race), that three stops is almost competitive with two stops even if the tyres last (see chart below), but it seems that the race is unlikely to be dry. If it is wet, however, then anything could happen – the wets are designed to run a race distance – maybe we could see a non-stop race. But I can’t say how likely that is either as no-one ran a decent length stint at reasonable pace to see if there is a significant degradation effect.
So, in terms of a form guide, there is nothing to say. Hopefully there will be some decent running in FP3 which can give some clues to the race.